Trafalgar New Homes Plc

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Links to latest market commentary for London and the South East

Savills Spotlight - The Global Financial Crisis, 10 years on

The effects of the Global Financial Crisis, which began in 2007, are still being felt a decade later, and will continue to influence the housing market in the years ahead.

Savills Research - Spotlight, July 2017

Savills - Prime London Residential Markets

One year on from the Brexit vote, prime London house prices have continued to soften, with small falls recorded in both central and outer prime locations over the past quarter.

Savills Research - Market in Minutes, July 2017

Savills Spotlight - Prime Residential Rents

Headline rents continue to slide across prime London and the commuter belt in the face of uncertainty. But pockets of the market are bucking the trend – some as a direct result of the Brexit vote.

Savills Research - Spotlight, July 2017

Savills - UK Residential Development Land

Housing associations, along with small and medium-sized housebuilders, are providing greater diversity to the traditional range of land buyers. With new finance and incentives, they are building more too.

Savills Research - Market in Minutes, July 2017

Savills Spotlight - How to match the expectations of buyers and sellers

It’s a rare moment when we can say that the prime housing markets beyond the capital  have performed better than London. But that has  been the case since the middle of 2014.”

Savills Research - Prime London and Country 2017

Savills Residential Property Focus, 2016, Quarter 4 (Post Brexit)

“Forecasting in the aftermath of the Brexit vote is difficult, but its impact on the property market is considerably less than that of the credit crunch.”

Savills Research, Residential Property Focus, 2016 Q4

Savills Briefing - Commuter belt prime rental markets

“Properties that are within a city or town centre, close to local amenities such as shops and stations continue to attract strong demand……”

“Looking forward, we expect ongoing demand for prime rental properties in the suburbs and key commuter locations of the capital to continue, especially as we see an increase in those following the traditional relocation routes out of London.”

“… landlords will need to remain competitive on asking rent and flexible on terms, as well as ensuring the property is presented in good condition to ensure they attract tenants in the long term.”

Savills Research, Prime Rental Markets in the Commuter Belt, Q3-2016

Savills Brexit Briefing - Impact on the Mainstream Market

“Sentiment will determine the impact of the Brexit vote in the short term.” “Ultimately, housing affordability will determine the impact of the vote to leave the EU on house prices.”

“Low levels of house building has resulted in a market that is fundamentally undersupplied.This has not changed.”

Savills Research, Brexit Briefing, Mainstream Market

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Market Overview

The residential property market in the UK has been depressed since the global financial crisis and has been severely constrained by the consequent lack of funding for mortgage applications. However, recent research indicates that the market is now showing signs of stability. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that in the 12 months to March 2013 house prices in the UK rose by 2.7 per cent., buoyed by larger rises in London and the South East. In addition, the Government has launched a number of initiatives, such as The National Planning Policy Framework, NewBuy, Help to Buy and the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending, targeted at stimulating the market:

● Help to Buy – Help to Buy is a £5.4 billion package announced in the March 2013 budget designed to tackle long term problems in the housing market. It consists of two schemes, an “equity loan” where the government will lend a buyer up to 20 per cent. of the value of a new build property and a “mortgage guarantee” where lenders will be incentivised to make more mortgages available to people with small deposits. Now extended to 2020.

The “equity loan” scheme became effective from 1 April 2013 and is available for buyers with a minimum 5 per cent. deposit but only for new build homes with a value of up to £600,000. The loan is interest free for the first five years and from year six a fee of 1.75 per cent. is payable which rises annually by RPI inflation plus 1 per cent.

The “mortgage guarantee” is available on either new build or existing properties but is scheduled to end in December 2016.

● The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) – The NPPF was published by the Department for Communities and Local Government in March 2012 and was designed to speed up and simplify the planning approval process. In January 2013 the DCLG also launched the Red Tape Challenge which planned to cut red tape by removing or amending around 100 small housing and construction regulations and make sensible changes to regulatory burdens.

● NewBuy – NewBuy was launched by the Government in March 2012 and is aimed at first time buyers and those who already own a home who only have funds for a 5-10 per cent. deposit on the home they wish to buy. The lenders participating in the scheme provide a 90-95 per cent. loan-to-value mortgage for buyers meeting their qualifying criteria. It is available in England on all the properties offered by home builders participating in the scheme up to and including a sale price of £500,000.

● Funding for Lending (FLS) – The £80bn FLS was set up by the Bank of England in July 2012 to help provide cheaper loans and mortgages to both individuals and businesses. Banks and building societies have been given access to cheap money on the condition that they then lend this on at competitive rates. The scheme will close in January 2018.

● Help to Buy: Starter Home - will enable first-time buyers under 40 to purchase a home at 20% discount to the market price. Under the scheme, which the Conservatives say will deliver 100,000 over five years on new brownfield land, developers would be exempt from paying Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL), off-site S106 contributions, including affordable housing and the homes would not have to meet the full zerocarbon standard. This scheme is planned, but not yet available.

In June 2016 a referendum voted to leave the European Union (Brexit). An initial assessment of the implications can be found here.